There are three main aspects in the steel demand analysis of Jinan galvanized steel pipe plant: first, the adjustment of construction steel; second, the rapid spread of steel production; third, the export of steel. In the general recovered galvanized steel pipes, the construction steel accounts for about 60% of the total steel consumption.
In terms of building steel demand, the transparency of decision-making is calculated according to the comprehensive factors of China Iron and Steel Industry Association. Due to the merger and reorganization affected by the epidemic, it is conservatively estimated that in the first quarter of 2015, the construction steel decreased by about 20% year on year, and the demand for construction steel has become a foregone conclusion. On February 3, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee said, "we should speed up the construction of new investment projects and actively promote projects under construction." At the same time, considering China's national development and Reform Commission and the people's Government of provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) in the third quarter of 2019, the national development and Reform Commission has approved a large number of transportation, energy, water conservancy construction projects, urban rail transit, etc. In the fourth quarter of 2019, China's national development and Reform Commission approved a large number of government bonds and corporate bonds. In 2020, there will be relatively sufficient funds for new construction project reserve and start-up of new construction projects. If China wins its last victory in March, demand for construction steel will be boosted. If the construction speed is further accelerated in the next few months, the steady release of galvanized steel pipe demand will make up for the decline of construction quantity in the first quarter to some extent. If the impact of the epidemic continues to create value in March, reconstruction may be delayed. In addition, with the increasing loss awareness of construction workers, even after the normal resumption of work, production may slow down in the short term, and construction steel consumption may also decline.
In terms of steel demand for galvanized steel pipes in the manufacturing industry, some industrial enterprises delayed the resumption of work after the announcement of the Spring Festival, which affected the resumption of work of automobile, home appliances, ships, construction machinery and other enterprises, and some enterprises also suffered from production saturation. But with the rapid development of galvanized steel, most of the "big industries" in China's manufacturing industry have enough production capacity. After the epidemic is effectively controlled, the enterprise can quickly resume the production of galvanized steel pipe, improve the utilization rate of production capacity, and effectively make up for the production loss during the shutdown period. Slow recovery will not limit subsequent production. In general, the short-term interruption of production rhythm of industrial enterprises has limited impact on the annual steel demand of manufacturing industry, and the annual output of various industrial products is expected to be no less than 2019.
In terms of export, seven industries are highly related to iron and steel (electrical equipment manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, metal products, special equipment manufacturing, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, transportation equipment manufacturing, metal products, machinery and equipment maintenance), with competitive advantages in the international market of high quality and low price, indirect export of iron and steel is expected to remain stable. However, according to the company, the company has basically completed the export orders before the Spring Festival in March, and it is uncertain whether it can smoothly ship goods.
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