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镀锌钢管市场很稳弱?

来源:http://www.jnxxjm.com

【 发布于:2019-07-26 17:08:05 】


  镀锌钢管市场价格弱稳,带钢价格稳中有涨,管价格延续上行,无缝管市场弱势维稳,型材市场价格震荡偏强。产能过剩的问题,我国以前也多次出现过。但是,从钢铁行业的例子来看,像目前这一轮的产能过剩范围如此之广、数量如此之大、影响如此之深还不多见。

  Galvanized steel pipe market price is weak and stable, the price of strip steel is rising steadily, the price of pipe continues to rise, seamless pipe market is weak and stable, and the price of profile market is strong. The problem of overcapacity has appeared many times before in China. However, from the example of the steel industry, it is rare that the scope, quantity and impact of the current round of excess capacity are so wide, so large.

  这一轮产能过剩的大背景是国际金融危机导致的外需下降,特别是我国经济发展进入新常态,增长速度由高速增长转为中高速增长,比较优势转换,处于结构调整的阵痛期,这就使得我国在经济高速增长时期,按照原有比较优势配置建设的产能出现了过剩。有分析认为,缺资金的镀锌钢管厂可以借此获得外资的支持,“对于小型企业或民企来说,引入外资有助于优化投资结构,推动创新升级。”

  The background of this round of excess capacity is the decline of external demand caused by the international financial crisis. Especially, China's economic development has entered a new normal state. The growth rate has changed from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth. The transformation of comparative advantage has put China in a painful period of structural adjustment, which makes China in the period of high-speed economic growth, according to the original comparative advantage. Overcapacity has emerged in the construction of potential allocation. Some analysts believe that the galvanized steel pipe mill lacking funds can obtain the support of foreign capital. "For small enterprises or private enterprises, the introduction of foreign capital will help optimize the investment structure and promote innovation and upgrading."

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  在这种氛围的影响下,螺纹钢价格反转的言论不绝于耳,但笔者认为,国内外经济环境不利于钢铁行业复苏,下游需求持续低迷和钢厂销售压力增大压制螺纹钢价格反弹,镀锌钢管价格将长时间在低位盘整振荡。刚刚结束的全国两会明确了稳定经济发展、加强经济转型的大基调,资源环境约束加大,劳动力等要素成本上升,高投入、高消耗、偏重数量扩张的发展方式已经难以为继。

  Under the influence of this atmosphere, the price reversal of threaded steel is always heard, but the author believes that the domestic and foreign economic environment is not conducive to the recovery of the steel industry, downstream demand continues to be depressed and sales pressure of steel mills increases to suppress the rebound of the price of threaded steel, galvanized steel pipe prices will oscillate for a long time in low-level consolidation. The just concluded NPC and CPPCC sessions have clearly defined the key tone of stabilizing economic development and strengthening economic transformation, increasing resource and environment constraints, rising labor costs and other factors, and the way of development with high input, high consumption and emphasis on quantity expansion has become unsustainable.

  这些内容已经从资金和需求上预先限制了螺纹钢大幅上涨的可能性。钢铁行业作为产能过剩行业,本身已经不会再得到国家政策的过多扶持,目前整个行业正在通过市场化方式淘汰和兼并一些技术含量低的落后产能以及不合适生存的钢企。钢铁行业盈利水平下降既是产能过剩引起的后果,也是产能过剩的直接表现。产能严重过剩,行业整体处于盈亏的边沿,使企业转型升级的能力下降,严重影响行业的健康发展。

  These contents have pre-restricted the possibility of a substantial increase in screw steel from the aspects of capital and demand. As an overcapacity industry, the iron and steel industry itself will no longer receive too much support from the state policy. At present, the whole industry is weeding out and annexing some backward productivity with low technology content and unsuitable steel enterprises through market-oriented way. The decline in the profitability of the iron and steel industry is not only the result of overcapacity, but also the direct manifestation of overcapacity. The serious excess of production capacity, the industry as a whole at the edge of profit and loss, so that the ability of enterprises to transform and upgrade declined, seriously affecting the healthy development of the industry.



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